Okay, time for another look at MLS scariness. I’ve settled into the formula I hope to use for the rest of the season (I’m not going to go back and recalculate scariness for the previous weeks, but I am scaling the scores down to match the current range). The formula is as follows:
pts (game) + gd (game) + opp ppg (last 5 games) + 1 (away team)I figure a weighted average over the last five weeks (or as many
weeks as the teams have played) to come up with the current
scariness.Enough about math though, here’s the current table:
| Team | Scariness | Ranking | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 4.9 | 1 (3) | +2 |
| CLB | 4.14 | 2 (2) | – |
| DAL | 3.76 | 3 (4) | +1 |
| KC | 3.75 | 4 (1) | -3 |
| TOR | 3.72 | 5 (8) | +3 |
| NE | 3.49 | 6 (7) | +1 |
| CHI | 3.29 | 7 (5) | -2 |
| DC | 2.94 | 8 (12) | +4 |
| LA | 2.93 | 9 (14) | +5 |
| COL | 2.22 | 10 (6) | -4 |
| HOU | 1.98 | 11 (9) | -2 |
| SAN | 1.75 | 12 (11) | -1 |
| SLC | 0.93 | 13 (13) | – |
| CHV | 0.9 | 14 (10) | -4 |
LA and DC moved way up the charts based on lopsided wins. Toronto also moved up, but I think that’s based more on a three game winning streak (man, BMO is looking like a fortress and a great place to catch a game1.)
Chivas and Colorado were the big sinkers. Chivas isn’t playing very well in general and got clubbed by LA, while the Rapids are settling into what I think i a more realistic ranking after some surprising early wins.
My only other thought is that being an RSL fan kinda stinks … oh well, I guess I can always get my kicks watching the ‘Fire Kreis’ folks get wound up.
1 I’ve gotta say, I really envy a young friend who just got called on an LDS mission to Toronto—he was on BYU’s reserve list last year and is going to love being in a soccer hungry area.
